Sunday, August 07, 2005

The day the world changed With the sixtieth anniversary of the dropping of the first atomic bomb on Hiroshima I like many others have been wondered if there was an alternative. The question of the whether or not it was justified has tested modern historians since the late forties and continues to do so even now, especially as its effects are still felt today. As the war drew to its conclusion the Japanese believed it was possible for both the Emperor and the Imperial structures that supported it to survive, the allies in effect would get in sight of Japan and call it quits. However the 1943 Casablanca Conference called for the unconditional surrender of German, Italy and Japan and after some of the bloodiest fighting of the war in the Pacific, notably the invasion of Okinawa, the Americans saw no reason to let the Japanese off the hook. So along side the development of the ‘bomb’ the Americans were planning the invasion of the Japanese homeland. Called Operation Downfall it was in two parts, firstly Operation Olympic an invasion of the southern Japanese island of Kyushu planned for November 1st 1945 and Operation Coronet, an invasion of central Honshu and Tokyo scheduled four months later on March 1st 1946. To give a sense of scale of the task the Americans landed 5 amphibious and 3 airborne divisions at Normandy, Olympic was to land 14 divisions and Coronet 23 divisions. The Japanese has predicted much of the American intent and put in place a plan for homeland defence called Ketsu-Go or “Decisive Action” and it’s objective was simple. Destroy as much of the America invasion fleet whilst still at sea using some 3000 Kamikaze planes along with hundreds of boats, mini subs and submarines not destroyed by the US Navy. The remaining Japanese Imperial Army was still a force to reckoned with and consisted of almost as many men as the Americans planned to use, they also had far more aircraft in reserve than thought, some 10,000 of various types and lets not forget the indigenous population with also would have fought to the death. One thing is certain then; the invasion of the Japan would have been the bloodiest campaign in history no matter who prevailed. Subsequent estimates put the possible US casualties at some 1.4 million and Japanese maybe five to ten times that, its also speculated that had the invasion been the bloodbath many predicted Truman would have used the bomb anyway. So it’s possible to conclude that the question is not as simple as ‘atom bomb’ or ‘invasion’ but that the attack on Hiroshima was a tragic and horrifying inevitability as the cost of an invasion was unthinkable, especially in the context of the 17 million people has already lost their lives in the Pacific since the attack on Pearl Harbour.

3 Comments:

Blogger Mr Ports said...

Ports' simplified history. If the yanks had said to Japan "If you surrender you can keep your Emperor" they almost certainly would have. But the yanks were intent on revenge so dropped the two bombs and then let them surrender and keep the Emperor. War is hell etc...

8/08/2005 11:07:00 am  
Blogger Tony C said...

Not quite. The Americans did make that offer before the first bomb was dropped. The Japanese saw it as a sign of weakness and assumed the Yanks had had enough and would make more consessions. Both sides misread each other, not for the first time or last for that matter.

8/08/2005 11:34:00 am  
Blogger Tony C said...

Your right of course, any kind of moral judgement in the context of four previous years is untenable. The irony of Nagasaki is that it was not the original target, that was Kokura a large industrial city to the north. Nagasaki was the secondary target.

From what info I can find the Americans had up to eight bombs in the pipeline.

Yes the Japanese had been talking to Russians about surrender by the Russians were also planning an invasion of the north Island. The bomb could be seen as a way to bring the war to swift close and warn off the Russians.

8/09/2005 09:22:00 am  

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